The recent trade has been to dump NFTs for ETH to maximize the amount of Proof of Work ETH after the Merge (if you own ETH now you will have the new Proof of Stake ETH in addition to the old Proof of Work ETH). The impact of the Merge on ETH will be ~3x that of the Halving on Bitcoin and possibly greater. The Merge is the biggest event in Web3 since the last Bitcoin halving in May of 2020. And if this wasn’t exciting enough, we also have the Ethereum Merge scheduled for sometime between September 13-15th. Everything I’m looking at points to lower inflation and recessionary economic activity.

China actually cut rates in mid-august so this is in the realm of possibility. Furthermore, any pause on quantitative tightening and maybe even a pivot to easing would add extra rocket fuel to a risk-assets recovery. If inflation peaked and other economic data are weak the Fed may increase rates by lower than expected (bullish), keep rates flat (very bullish), or cut (insanely bullish). The data for August will be available on September 13th and the Fed FOMC meeting will be on September 21st. We will get CPI inflation numbers and if they are lower once again (last month inflation was lower than the previous month as I expected) then we will know inflation peaked in June.

Summer doldrums will come to an end soon with big market moving events in September.

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